Home / Decision example
Choosing between onboarding, expansion and sales coverage
One decision, followed through the three Twins from three options to a result. The numbers are an example.
The question
Which action should get the next investment?
A B2B software company has budget for one program this quarter. Three ideas compete for it. An onboarding fix for new accounts that stall before setup is complete. A second-product offer for 6,000 single-product accounts that use the product every week. Added sales coverage for 1,500 accounts without an assigned seller.
Comparing three growth options
| Action | Recommendation | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Second-product offer | Start | Margin well above cost, and it can be delivered now |
| Onboarding fix | Prepare first | The product team needs capacity and an owner first |
| Sales coverage | Rework | Returns less than the team needs |
Who does what in this example
- SponsorDecides which action to start and whether to scale it.
- Platform ownerBuilds the action and runs it in your platform.
- Data leadSupplies the agreed results from your systems.
- Stradem teamInterprets the results with your team and recommends the next step.
Step 1, Segment Twin
Choose what to go after first
In this example the team needs margin of 3.5 times the program cost. Each team sets its own number. An idea that reaches it earns a test. A measured result that reaches it earns a rollout, once the delivery plan and the sponsor's approval are in place.
Does it return enough?
The forecast margin is at least 3.5 times the program cost. The action fits the budget and has a sponsor who owns the result.
Which is worth more?
The options that return enough are compared on value, over the same period and with the same assumptions.
Can we start now?
An option that is missing capacity, data or an owner waits behind the best option that is ready.
Start with one
One action starts, with its owner, its test and the result that earns the next step.
Three views of the same options
Margin favors sales coverage. Value favors the onboarding fix. The four steps above pick the second-product offer. Switch the view to see each order.
Compare the three options by
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Act firstSecond-product offerMarketing action
Margin is 5.8 times cost, above the 3.5 times the team needs, and it can start now.
-
QueuedOnboarding fixProduct and success action
Margin is 3.6 times cost. It needs product team capacity and a delivery owner first, and starts when those are in place.
-
ReworkSales coverageSales action
Margin is 2.2 times cost, below the 3.5 times the team needs. Rework the cost or the gain before starting.
Second-product offer starts first. The onboarding fix leads on value and waits for product team capacity and a delivery owner. Sales coverage returns margin of 2.2 times its cost, below the 3.5 times the team needs, and goes back for rework.
Example, $ millions
Step 2, Journey Twin
Study the journey and set up the test
- Where in the journey
- Accounts that use the product every week for a month, before the first renewal talk. They already show the habit a second product builds on.
- What to send
- A second-product offer inside the workflow they already use, in the product and by email.
- When to pull back
- Accounts in a renewal talk, with an open support case or that bought in the last 30 days hear nothing. The offer pauses if unsubscribes pass 1.0% in any week.
- Owners
- The marketing lead is the sponsor and owns the offer and its timing. The platform lead runs delivery and the data lead owns the measure.
- Test
- Eligible accounts are split at random, inside your lifecycle platform, into an offer group and a comparison group that stays out of the offer. The measure is a second purchase within eight weeks. Read how Stradem measures when random assignment is unavailable.
Test before you roll out
A test with half the accounts getting the offer and half held out costs less than a full rollout and limits the downside. The rollout follows the result. Full-rollout totals include the test accounts and the test cost.
| Measure | Test | Full rollout |
|---|---|---|
| Accounts that get the offer | 3,000, with 3,000 held out | 6,000, including the 3,000 test accounts |
| Extra deals at +2.5 points | 75 | 150 |
| Forecast margin over 12 months | $1.16M | $2.33M |
| Program cost | $180K test | $400K, including the test |
| Forecast value | $983K | $1.93M |
Step 3, Growth Twin
Read the result and record the decision
After the agreed window, eight weeks in this example, Growth Twin reports the tested gain and its 95% range, worked out from the size and conversion rate of each group. The decision follows a rule written before launch. A decision to scale also needs the safeguards to have held, delivery to be ready and the sponsor to approve.
| Decision | When | What happens |
|---|---|---|
| Scale | The low end of the range is above break-even, and the tested gain is above the target | Roll the offer out to all eligible accounts and pick the next investment |
| Refine | The low end is above break-even, and the tested gain is below the target | Refine the offer and retest |
| Stop | The high end of the range is below break-even | Stop and redirect the investment |
| Hold | The range spans break-even | Hold the rollout. The plan written before launch governs the next review. |
Example result: scale. The 95% range runs from +0.6 to +3.6 points. Its low end is above break-even at 0.43 points, and the tested gain of +2.1 points is above the 1.5 point target. The rule written before launch points to scaling. The sponsor approves the rollout after confirming that the guardrail held and delivery is ready.
Example result. The 95% range comes from the size and conversion rate of each group, 3,000 accounts converting at 11.1% and 9.0%. Left of break-even, the offer costs more than it adds. Between break-even and the target, it covers its cost and falls short of the return the team needs.
The record
Keep the assumptions and result with the decision
The workspace keeps the question, the options, the assumptions, the cost, the owners, the test, the result and the decision together. After the test, the log shows the original assumption, the observed difference, the revised forecast and the next decision side by side. The next decision starts from this record.
Offer a second product to engaged single-product accounts
- Options
- Onboarding fix, second-product offer and sales coverage
- Selected
- Offer first. Original forecast: $1.93M after a $400K cost, margin 5.8 times cost, ready to start
- Also
- Onboarding fix waits for capacity and an owner. Sales coverage goes back for rework.
- Sponsor and owner
- Marketing lead
- Test
- Random split, 3,000 and 3,000 accounts, eight weeks
- Hypothesis
- +2.5 points, from 9.0% to 11.5%
- Break-even
- 0.43 points
- Target
- Act on a gain of 1.5 points or more
- Guardrail
- Pause if the weekly unsubscribe rate passes 1.0%
- Status
- Closed at week eight
- Result
- +2.1 points (11.1% against 9.0%), 95% range +0.6 to +3.6
- Revised forecast
- $1.55M of value over the 12 months after rollout, using the same inputs at +2.1 points. The value arrives over those 12 months.
- Decision
- Scale to all 6,000 accounts and pick the next investment
Each decision adds a log like this to your workspace.
Assumptions
The numbers in this example rest on these assumptions.
The assumptions for each option
| Measure | Second-product offer | Onboarding fix | Sales coverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Evidence | Weekly usage data shows 6,000 single-product accounts. One earlier offer to similar accounts lifted conversion. | Funnel data shows 45% of new accounts stall before setup completes. A guided setup pilot on 400 accounts showed a gain of 5 points. | 1,500 accounts above the size cutoff lack an assigned seller and show buying signals. The gain assumes win rates close to covered accounts. |
| Eligible accounts | 6,000 | 8,000 | 1,500 |
| Expected gain | +2.5 points. Starting rate: 9.0% buy a second product within eight weeks. | +4.0 points. Starting rate: 55% complete setup within 30 days. | +7.0 points. Starting rate: 12% win rate on worked accounts. |
| Value per success, first 12 months | $15,500 per second-product purchase | $9,000 modeled first-year margin per additional account that completes setup and stays a paying account | $32,000 per additional deal closed |
| Program cost and capacity | $400K. Two weeks of campaign operations. | $800K. Two product sprints and one success manager. | $1.50M. Six sellers, hired over two quarters. |
| Value | $1.93M | $2.08M | $1.86M |
| Margin 3.5 times cost or more | Yes, 5.8 times | Yes, 3.6 times | No, 2.2 times |
| How sure we are of the gain | Medium. One earlier offer to similar accounts supports the gain. The evidence is relevant and recent, and a single test sits behind it. | Medium. A pilot on 400 accounts supports the gain. The sample is small and the range is wide. | Low. Coverage for these accounts is untested, so the gain is an assumption. |
| Sponsor | Marketing lead | Head of product | Head of sales operations |
| Delivery owner | Marketing lead | Not yet assigned | Assigned after the coverage model exists |
| Ready to start | High. Weekly usage data is available and the marketing platform can run the offer. | Low. The product team has no capacity this quarter, and no delivery owner is assigned. | Medium. Hiring takes two quarters, and a coverage model for these accounts is yet to be defined. |
| Decision | Act first | Waits until it is ready | Rework before starting |
Values cover the first 12 months after launch. Setup completion is an early step, so the onboarding figure assumes that accounts which finish setup go on to pay and stay. The test measures the later result. Each team sets its own number for the return it needs, and the value calculator accepts any number.